{"id":92824,"date":"2024-08-24T06:50:59","date_gmt":"2024-08-24T03:50:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/?p=92824"},"modified":"2024-08-23T19:21:07","modified_gmt":"2024-08-23T16:21:07","slug":"lumea-noastra-se-afla-sub-influenta-evenimentelor-exceptionale-de-tip-lebede-negre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/lumea-noastra-se-afla-sub-influenta-evenimentelor-exceptionale-de-tip-lebede-negre\/","title":{"rendered":"Lumea noastr\u0103 se afl\u0103 sub influen\u0163a evenimentelor excep\u0163ionale de tip &#8222;Lebede negre&#8221;"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_92825\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-92825\" style=\"width: 344px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/lebada-neagra.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\" wp-image-92825\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/lebada-neagra.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"354\" height=\"249\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/lebada-neagra.jpg 541w, https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/08\/lebada-neagra-300x211.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 354px) 100vw, 354px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-92825\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><strong>Imagine:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/photos\/swan-bird-waterfowl-black-swan-122983\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><strong>pixabay.com<\/strong><\/a> (Commons Creative &#8211; free)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u00cenainte de descoperirea Australiei, oamenii din lumea veche erau convin\u0219i c\u0103 toate lebedele sunt albe, o credin\u021b\u0103 de neatins, deoarece p\u0103rea complet confirmat\u0103 de dovezi empirice. Observarea primei lebede negre ar fi putut fi o surpriz\u0103 interesant\u0103 pentru c\u00e2\u021biva ornitologi (\u0219i pentru al\u021bii extrem de preocupa\u021bi de colorarea p\u0103s\u0103rilor), dar semnifica\u021bia pove\u0219tii este alta. Povestea ilustreaz\u0103 o limitare sever\u0103 a \u00eenv\u0103\u021b\u0103rii noastre din observa\u021bii sau experien\u021b\u0103 \u0219i fragilitatea cuno\u0219tin\u021belor noastre. O singur\u0103 observa\u021bie poate invalida o afirma\u021bie general\u0103 derivat\u0103 din milenii \u00eentregi de observare a milioane de lebede albe. Tot ce ai nevoie este o singur\u0103 pas\u0103re neagr\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Ceea ce se nume\u015fte <strong>Leb\u0103d\u0103 neagr\u0103<\/strong> este un eveniment cu urm\u0103toarele trei atribute. \u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, este ceva excep\u0163ional, deoarece se afl\u0103 \u00een afara domeniului a\u0219tept\u0103rilor obi\u0219nuite, \u00eentruc\u00e2t nimic din trecut nu poate indica \u00een mod conving\u0103tor posibilitatea acestuia. \u00cen al doilea r\u00e2nd, are un impact extrem. \u00cen al treilea r\u00e2nd, \u00een ciuda statutului s\u0103u anormal, natura uman\u0103 ne face s\u0103 invent\u0103m explica\u021bii pentru apari\u021bia sa, f\u0103c\u00e2ndu-l explicabil \u0219i previzibil. A\u015fadar, avem tripletul &#8222;raritate, impact extrem \u0219i predictibilitate retrospectiv\u0103&#8221;.<\/p>\n<p>Un num\u0103r mic de Lebede negre explic\u0103 aproape totul \u00een lumea noastr\u0103, de la succesul ideilor \u0219i religiilor, p\u00e2n\u0103 la dinamica evenimentelor istorice, p\u00e2n\u0103 la elemente ale vie\u021bii noastre personale. De c\u00e2nd am p\u0103r\u0103sit Pleistocenul, acum vreo zece milenii, efectul acestor Lebede negre a crescut. A \u00eenceput s\u0103 se accelereze \u00een timpul revolu\u021biei industriale, pe m\u0103sur\u0103 ce lumea a \u00eenceput s\u0103 se complice, \u00een timp ce evenimentele obi\u0219nuite, cele pe care le studiem \u0219i le discut\u0103m \u0219i \u00eencerc\u0103m s\u0103 le prezicem au devenit din ce \u00een ce mai lipsite de importan\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Imagineaz\u0103-\u021bi c\u00e2t de pu\u021bin te-ar fi ajutat \u00een\u021belegerea lumii \u00een ajunul evenimentelor din 1914 s\u0103 ghici\u0163i ce urma s\u0103 se \u00eent\u00e2mple. Ce zici de ascensiunea lui Hitler \u0219i r\u0103zboiul care a urmat? Ce zici de dispari\u021bia abrupt\u0103 a blocului sovietic? Ce zici de ascensiunea fundamentalismului islamic? Ce zici de r\u0103sp\u00e2ndirea Internetului? \u015ei multe altele. Toate urmeaz\u0103 aceast\u0103 dinamic\u0103 a Lebedei negre.<\/p>\n<p>G\u00e2nde\u015fte-te la atacul terorist din 11 septembrie 2001: dac\u0103 riscul ar fi fost rezonabil de imaginat pe 10 septembrie 2001, el nu s-ar fi \u00eent\u00e2mplat. Dac\u0103 o astfel de posibilitate ar fi fost considerat\u0103 demn\u0103 de aten\u021bie, avioanele de v\u00e2n\u0103toare ar fi \u00eenconjurat cerul New York-ului, avioanele ar fi avut u\u0219i antiglon\u021b \u00eencuiate, iar atacul nu ar fi avut loc. Altceva s-ar fi putut \u00eent\u00e2mpla. Ce? Nu se \u0219tie. Nu este ciudat s\u0103 vezi un eveniment petrec\u00e2ndu-se tocmai pentru c\u0103 nu trebuia s\u0103 se \u00eent\u00e2mple? G\u00e2nde\u015fte-te de tsunami-ul din Pacific din decembrie 2004. Dac\u0103 ar fi fost de a\u0219teptat, nu ar fi cauzat daunele pe care le-a f\u0103cut &#8211; zonele afectate ar fi fost mai pu\u021bin populate, ar fi fost pus \u00een aplicare un sistem de avertizare timpurie. Ceea ce \u0219tii nu te poate r\u0103ni cu adev\u0103rat.<\/p>\n<p>Incapacitatea de a prezice valori aberante implic\u0103 incapacitatea de a prezice cursul istoriei, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere ponderea acestor evenimente \u00een dinamica evenimentelor.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00cenainte de descoperirea Australiei, oamenii din lumea veche erau convin\u0219i c\u0103 toate lebedele sunt albe, o credin\u021b\u0103 de neatins, deoarece p\u0103rea complet confirmat\u0103 de dovezi empirice. Observarea primei lebede negre ar fi putut fi o surpriz\u0103 interesant\u0103 pentru c\u00e2\u021biva ornitologi &#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more-container\"><a title=\"Lumea noastr\u0103 se afl\u0103 sub influen\u0163a evenimentelor excep\u0163ionale de tip &#8222;Lebede negre&#8221;\" class=\"read-more button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/lumea-noastra-se-afla-sub-influenta-evenimentelor-exceptionale-de-tip-lebede-negre\/#more-92824\" aria-label=\"Cite\u0219te mai multe despre Lumea noastr\u0103 se afl\u0103 sub influen\u0163a evenimentelor excep\u0163ionale de tip &#8222;Lebede negre&#8221;\">Cititi mai multe<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":92825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5072],"tags":[1870,139,123,85,597,5382,19182,525,1973,1710,9819,73,1975],"class_list":["post-92824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-polemici","tag-1870","tag-australia","tag-avioane","tag-hitler","tag-internet","tag-lebada","tag-lebada-neagra","tag-new-york","tag-oceanul-pacific","tag-pasare","tag-polemici","tag-razboi","tag-tsunami","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lumea noastr\u0103 se afl\u0103 sub influen\u0163a evenimentelor excep\u0163ionale de tip &quot;Lebede negre&quot; - Secretele lui Lovendal<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/lumea-noastra-se-afla-sub-influenta-evenimentelor-exceptionale-de-tip-lebede-negre\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"ro_RO\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lumea noastr\u0103 se afl\u0103 sub influen\u0163a evenimentelor excep\u0163ionale de tip &quot;Lebede negre&quot;\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"\u00cenainte de descoperirea Australiei, oamenii din lumea veche erau convin\u0219i c\u0103 toate lebedele sunt albe, o credin\u021b\u0103 de neatins, deoarece p\u0103rea complet confirmat\u0103 de dovezi empirice. 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Secretele lui Lovendal","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/lumea-noastra-se-afla-sub-influenta-evenimentelor-exceptionale-de-tip-lebede-negre\/","og_locale":"ro_RO","og_type":"article","og_title":"Lumea noastr\u0103 se afl\u0103 sub influen\u0163a evenimentelor excep\u0163ionale de tip \"Lebede negre\"","og_description":"\u00cenainte de descoperirea Australiei, oamenii din lumea veche erau convin\u0219i c\u0103 toate lebedele sunt albe, o credin\u021b\u0103 de neatins, deoarece p\u0103rea complet confirmat\u0103 de dovezi empirice. Observarea primei lebede negre ar fi putut fi o surpriz\u0103 interesant\u0103 pentru c\u00e2\u021biva ornitologi ... 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