{"id":64059,"date":"2019-09-21T08:48:32","date_gmt":"2019-09-21T05:48:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/?p=64059"},"modified":"2019-09-21T08:48:32","modified_gmt":"2019-09-21T05:48:32","slug":"un-eveniment-bizar-are-loc-intr-o-localitate-din-polonia-aici-de-circa-un-deceniu-nu-se-mai-nasc-decat-fete-explicatia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/un-eveniment-bizar-are-loc-intr-o-localitate-din-polonia-aici-de-circa-un-deceniu-nu-se-mai-nasc-decat-fete-explicatia\/","title":{"rendered":"Un eveniment bizar are loc \u00eentr-o localitate din Polonia: aici, de circa un deceniu, nu se mai nasc dec\u00e2t fete! Explica\u0163ia?"},"content":{"rendered":"<figure id=\"attachment_64060\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-64060\" style=\"width: 327px\" class=\"wp-caption alignleft\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/copil.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"size-full wp-image-64060\" src=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/copil.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"337\" height=\"262\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/copil.jpg 337w, https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/copil-300x233.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 337px) 100vw, 337px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-64060\" class=\"wp-caption-text\"><strong>Imagine:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/pixabay.com\/ro\/photos\/baby-trandafiri-fat%C4%83-1262817\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>pixabay.com<\/strong><\/a> (Commons Creative &#8211; free)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Micul sat polonez Miejsce Odrzanskie a atras aten\u0163ia mass-mediei din \u00eentreaga lume, ca urmare a unei &#8222;anomalii ciudate a popula\u021biei\u201d. Astfel, a trecut mai bine de un deceniu de c\u00e2nd ultimul b\u0103iat s-a n\u0103scut \u00een acest loc, ultimii 12 bebelu\u0219i adu\u015fi \u00een via\u0163\u0103 fiind toate fete, scrie <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/2019\/08\/06\/world\/europe\/poland-village-girls-no-boys.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\"><strong>New York Times<\/strong><\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Primarul localit\u0103\u0163ii spune c\u0103 exist\u0103 un interes \u0219tiin\u021bific &#8211; probabil din partea geneticienilor &#8211; \u00een cercetarea unui asemenea eveniment neobi\u015fnuit. Dar teoria cea mai probabil\u0103 este aceea c\u0103 totul este doar o coinciden\u021b\u0103 statistic\u0103. Dar, cum ar putea fi posibil acest lucru?<\/p>\n<p>La fel ca o aruncare unei monede, o na\u0219tere are dou\u0103 rezultate la fel de probabile &#8211; \u0219i, prin urmare, probabilitatea ca un copil s\u0103 fie fat\u0103 este de 50%. De asemenea, putem presupune c\u0103 fiecare na\u0219tere individual\u0103 poate fi considerat\u0103 independent\u0103 de cea anterioar\u0103 &#8211; prima mam\u0103 care are o fat\u0103 nu face mai mult sau mai pu\u0163in probabil ca cea de-a doua mam\u0103 s\u0103 aib\u0103 \u015fi ea o fat\u0103.<\/p>\n<p>Prin urmare, probabilitatea de a avea dou\u0103 fete la r\u00e2nd este 1\/2 x 1\/2 = 1\/4. Prin extensie, putem observa c\u0103 probabilitatea ca 12 fete consecutive s\u0103 se nasc\u0103 \u00een Miejsce Odrzanskie este de 1\/4.096. Acest lucru sun\u0103 extrem de pu\u021bin probabil &#8211; dac\u0103 vi s-ar spune c\u0103 exist\u0103 una din 4.000 de \u0219anse s\u0103 plou\u0103 m\u00e2ine, atunci probabil c\u0103 nu v-a\u0163i deranja s\u0103 v\u0103 lua\u0163i umbrela. Cu toate acestea, este important s\u0103 ne amintim c\u0103 aceste \u015fanse se refer\u0103 la \u00eentrebarea foarte specific\u0103: <em>\u201eCare este probabilitatea s\u0103 existe 12 fete consecutive n\u0103scute \u00een Miejsce Odrzanskie?\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p>Nu exist\u0103 nimic special \u00een aceast\u0103 localitate din Polonia &#8211; ar fi putut ca acest eveniment s\u0103 se \u00eent\u00e2mple \u00eentr-o localitate din Lituania sau Ungaria. La fel, ar fi putut fi vorba de 12 b\u0103ie\u021bi, \u00een loc de fete.<\/p>\n<p>Dac\u0103 schimb\u0103m \u00eentrebarea: <em>\u201eCare este probabilitatea ca ultimii 12 copii n\u0103scu\u021bi \u00eentr-un ora\u0219 din lume s\u0103 aib\u0103 acela\u0219i s*x?\u201d<\/em> atunci vedem o poveste complet diferit\u0103. GeoNames este o baz\u0103 de date online care con\u021bine detalii despre fiecare localitate din lume, cu o popula\u021bie de peste 500 de locuitori, de unde putem afla c\u0103 exist\u0103 pu\u021bin sub 200.000 de localit\u0103\u0163i pe aceast\u0103 planet\u0103. Pe baza acestui lucru, ne-am a\u0219tepta s\u0103 existe aproximativ 50 de localit\u0103\u0163i din lume, cu 12 fete n\u0103scute consecutiv (1\/4096 x 200.000) \u0219i alte 50 de localit\u0103\u0163i cu 12 b\u0103ie\u021bi n\u0103scu\u0163i consecutiv. A\u0219adar, de\u0219i acest lucru pare a fi un eveniment ciudat \u0219i unic pentru oamenii din Miejsce Odrzanskie, exist\u0103, probabil, aproximativ 100 de alte locuri din lume unde se \u00eent\u00e2mpl\u0103 ceva similar acum.<\/p>\n<p>O parte din motivul pentru care cazul Miejsce Odrzanskie ar fi putut atrage at\u00e2t de mult\u0103 aten\u021bie este urm\u0103torul: localitatea este una foarte mic\u0103, de doar 272 de persoane, cu o natalitate de nu mai mult de una pe an. Asta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 acest num\u0103r de 12 fete n\u0103scute s\u0103 se \u00eentind\u0103 pe aproape un deceniu, ceea ce a atras at\u00e2ta aten\u021bie&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Micul sat polonez Miejsce Odrzanskie a atras aten\u0163ia mass-mediei din \u00eentreaga lume, ca urmare a unei &#8222;anomalii ciudate a popula\u021biei\u201d. Astfel, a trecut mai bine de un deceniu de c\u00e2nd ultimul b\u0103iat s-a n\u0103scut \u00een acest loc, ultimii 12 bebelu\u0219i &#8230; <\/p>\n<p class=\"read-more-container\"><a title=\"Un eveniment bizar are loc \u00eentr-o localitate din Polonia: aici, de circa un deceniu, nu se mai nasc dec\u00e2t fete! Explica\u0163ia?\" class=\"read-more button\" href=\"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/un-eveniment-bizar-are-loc-intr-o-localitate-din-polonia-aici-de-circa-un-deceniu-nu-se-mai-nasc-decat-fete-explicatia\/#more-64059\" aria-label=\"Cite\u0219te mai multe despre Un eveniment bizar are loc \u00eentr-o localitate din Polonia: aici, de circa un deceniu, nu se mai nasc dec\u00e2t fete! Explica\u0163ia?\">Cititi mai multe<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":64060,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5040],"tags":[9818,1355,5941,2768,4496,669,1307,583,13810,79,591],"class_list":["post-64059","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-bizar","tag-bizar","tag-copil","tag-genetician","tag-lituania","tag-mass-media","tag-moneda","tag-ploaie","tag-polonia","tag-probabilitate","tag-umbrela","tag-ungaria","resize-featured-image"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.3 (Yoast SEO v27.4) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Un eveniment bizar are loc \u00eentr-o localitate din Polonia: aici, de circa un deceniu, nu se mai nasc dec\u00e2t fete! 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Explica\u0163ia? - Secretele lui Lovendal","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/un-eveniment-bizar-are-loc-intr-o-localitate-din-polonia-aici-de-circa-un-deceniu-nu-se-mai-nasc-decat-fete-explicatia\/","og_locale":"ro_RO","og_type":"article","og_title":"Un eveniment bizar are loc \u00eentr-o localitate din Polonia: aici, de circa un deceniu, nu se mai nasc dec\u00e2t fete! Explica\u0163ia?","og_description":"Micul sat polonez Miejsce Odrzanskie a atras aten\u0163ia mass-mediei din \u00eentreaga lume, ca urmare a unei &#8222;anomalii ciudate a popula\u021biei\u201d. Astfel, a trecut mai bine de un deceniu de c\u00e2nd ultimul b\u0103iat s-a n\u0103scut \u00een acest loc, ultimii 12 bebelu\u0219i ... 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