{"id":63284,"date":"2019-08-11T08:00:28","date_gmt":"2019-08-11T05:00:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/?p=63284"},"modified":"2019-07-26T16:03:27","modified_gmt":"2019-07-26T13:03:27","slug":"cate-civilizatii-extraterestre-avansate-ar-putea-exista-in-galaxia-noastra-cercetatorii-au-estimat-unele-cifre","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.lovendal.ro\/wp52\/cate-civilizatii-extraterestre-avansate-ar-putea-exista-in-galaxia-noastra-cercetatorii-au-estimat-unele-cifre\/","title":{"rendered":"C\u00e2te civiliza\u0163ii extraterestre avansate ar putea exista \u00een galaxia noastr\u0103? Cercet\u0103torii au estimat unele cifre…"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>Problema existen\u0163ei extratere\u015ftrilor i-a preocupat \u00eentotdeauna pe oameni. Dar oare c\u00e2te specii extraterestre avansate exist\u0103 \u00een galaxia noastr\u0103? Precum se \u015ftie,\u00a0 \u00een anul 1961, astrofizicianul F. Drake a propus \u00een acest sens, urm\u0103toarea formul\u0103:<\/p>\n

N = n * P1 * P2 * P3 * P4 * t\/T, care se cite\u0219te \u00een felul urm\u0103tor: num\u0103rul de civiliza\u021bii \u00een galaxie (N) este egal cu num\u0103rul total de stele (n), \u00eenmul\u021bit cu \u0219ansa (probabilitatea) ca o stea s\u0103 aib\u0103 planete (P1), cu \u0219ansa ca pe respectivul sistem planetar s\u0103 existe via\u021b\u0103 (P2), cu \u0219ansa ca via\u021ba s\u0103 fi evoluat p\u00e2n\u0103 la o fiin\u021b\u0103 inteligent\u0103 (P3), cu \u0219ansa ca fiin\u021ba inteligent\u0103 s\u0103 fi ajuns p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een stadiul unei civiliza\u021bii tehnologice (P4). Acest rezultat mai trebuie \u00eenmul\u021bit cu raportul dintre durata estimat\u0103 de via\u021b\u0103 a unei civiliza\u021bii \u0219i durata de via\u021b\u0103 a Galaxiei (t\/T), pentru a nu pune la socoteal\u0103 dec\u00e2t civiliza\u021biile contemporane nou\u0103, nu \u0219i pe cele care s-au stins ori abia urmeaz\u0103 s\u0103 se nasc\u0103.<\/p>\n

Evident, termenii formulei nu pot fi dec\u00eet estima\u021bi, cu o aproxima\u021bie grosolan\u0103. S\u0103-i lu\u0103m pe r\u00e2nd. C\u00e2te stele sunt \u00een galaxie? Se vorbe\u0219te de 100 p\u00e2n\u0103 la 200 miliarde. Astrofizicianul C. Sagan d\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 (\u00een 1980) cifra de 400 miliarde.<\/p>\n

C\u00e2te stele au planete? \u00cen trecut se credea c\u0103 pu\u021bine. Totu\u0219i progresele f\u0103cute \u00een ultimii ani au permis detectarea unor posibile planete la stelele care nu se afl\u0103 prea departe de P\u0103m\u00e2nt (c\u00e2teva zeci sau sute de ani lumin\u0103). Rezultatele sunt d\u0103t\u0103toare de speran\u021be. Se estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 o stea din trei sau poate din cinci are \u00eenso\u021bitori stin\u0219i. Dac\u0103 vom lua, cu cele de mai sus, n = 200 miliarde \u0219i P1 = 1\/4, rezult\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een galaxia noastr\u0103 exist\u0103 circa 50 miliarde de sisteme planetare. Se consider\u0103 c\u0103, \u00een medie, \u00een fiecare sistem planetar exist\u0103 dou\u0103 planete propice vie\u021bii \u0219i c\u0103 pe una dintre acestea via\u0163a chiar apuc\u0103 s\u0103 si apar\u0103. Deci P2= 1.<\/p>\n

Via\u021ba poate s\u0103 \u00eensemne doar microorganisme. Reamintim – pe P\u0103m\u00e2nt, timp de peste 3 miliarde de ani au tr\u0103it doar unicelulare \u0219i doar un singur miliard de ani fiin\u021be mai complexe. Dac\u0103 condi\u021biile erau un pic mai nefavorabile \u0219i microorganismele ar fi avut nevoie nu de 3, ci de 4 miliarde de ani de evolu\u021bie, azi n-ar fi existat (\u00eenc\u0103) pe P\u0103m\u00e2nt nici m\u0103car un vierme, dar\u0103-mi-te copaci sau animale. Dac\u0103 dup\u0103 aceste 4 miliarde de ani Soarele s-ar fi r\u0103cit ori s-ar fi transformat \u00eentr-o gigant\u0103 ro\u0219ie, f\u0103c\u00e2nd oceanele s\u0103 fiarb\u0103 ori ar fi explodat, via\u021ba n-ar mai fi apucat s\u0103 cunoasc\u0103 niciodat\u0103 un alt stadiu. Cu toate acestea, speciali\u0219tii r\u0103m\u00een optimi\u0219ti \u0219i estimeaz\u0103 c\u0103 dac\u0103 via\u021ba apare \u00eentr-un loc, ea ajunge s\u0103 dea na\u0219tere \u00eentr-un caz din zece \u0219i unei fiin\u021be inteligente (deci P3 = 1\/10).<\/p>\n

\u0218ansa ca fiin\u021bele inteligente s\u0103 ajung\u0103 s\u0103 creeze o civiliza\u021bie tehnologic\u0103 este estimat\u0103 tot la 1\/10. Prin civiliza\u021bie tehnologic\u0103 \u00een\u021belegem aici stadiul \u00een care apare \u0219i dorin\u021ba \u0219i posibilitatea tehnic\u0103 de a c\u0103l\u0103tori \u00een Cosmos. Num\u0103rul acestor civiliza\u021bii \u00een istoria galaxiei ar fi deci, conform calculelor noastre, de 500 milioane.<\/p>\n

Care s\u0103 fie \u00eens\u0103 durata medie de via\u021b\u0103 a unei civiliza\u021bii tehnologice? (adic\u0103 t). Problema este f\u0103r\u0103 \u00eendoial\u0103 esen\u021bial\u0103. Oric\u00e2t de frumos ar fi s\u0103 vis\u0103m la progresul continuu, infinit, al umanit\u0103\u021bii, nu trebuie s\u0103 pierdem din vedere nici eventualitatea ca lucrurile s\u0103 ia o \u00eentors\u0103tur\u0103 mai pu\u021bin pl\u0103cut\u0103. Cu bombele destinate Europei, existente \u00een arsenalele puterilor militare, fiecare european ar putea fi ucis de circa 150 000 ori. Armamentul nuclear de pe un singur submarin de tip \u201ePoseidon” ar putea transforma \u00een pustiu un teritoriu de trei ori mai mare dec\u00e2t cel al Europei \u0219.a.m.d.<\/p>\n

\u00cen urma unui r\u0103zboi nuclear se zice c\u0103 99% din radioactivitate va dispare relativ repede; dar ce folos, dac\u0103 restul de 1% va fi suficient s\u0103 ucid\u0103 \u00eentreaga omenire. Ceea ce ar supravie\u021bui sigur ar fi insectele \u0219i microorganismele… Prof. J. Birks de la Universitatea din Colorado a ar\u0103tat c\u0103 dup\u0103 un r\u0103zboi nuclear P\u0103m\u00e2ntul s-ar acoperi de o \u201ecea\u021b\u0103 foto-chimic\u0103” at\u00eet de deas\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t 99% din lumina Soarelui n-ar mai ajunge la sol timp de mai multe s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni. Aceast\u0103 \u201enoapte” prelungit\u0103 ar distruge oricum orice recolt\u0103 a anului respectiv.<\/p>\n

C. Sagan, dup\u0103 ce observ\u0103 c\u0103 din p\u0103cate specia uman\u0103 se caracterizeaz\u0103 de multe ori prin agresivitate, supunere fa\u021b\u0103 de ritualuri \u0219i st\u0103p\u00e2ni, ca \u0219i prin ur\u0103 vizavi de str\u0103ini, apreciaz\u0103 c\u0103 \u0219ansele ca civiliza\u021bia noastr\u0103 (tehnologic\u0103) s\u0103 supravie\u021buiasc\u0103 mai mult de o sut\u0103 de ani de acum \u00eencolo nu este mai mare de 1%. El adaug\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een cazul unui dezastru poate va mai exista \u0219i \u00een viitor inteligen\u021b\u0103 pe P\u0103m\u00e2nt, dar ea nu va mai apar\u021bine oamenilor.<\/p>\n

S\u0103 revenim la formula lui Drake. Ajunseser\u0103m la 500 milioane civiliza\u021bii tehnologice. Dac\u0103 durata medie de via\u021b\u0103 a unei astfel de civiliza\u021bii este (la absurd!) doar de 100 de ani, dup\u0103 care urmeaz\u0103 autodistrugerea, atunci t = 100, pe c\u00e2nd v\u00e2rsta galaxiei (p\u00e2n\u0103 azi) poate fi luat\u0103 T = 10.000.000.000 ani.<\/p>\n

F\u0103c\u00e2nd opera\u021biile din formul\u0103 rezult\u0103 c\u0103 \u00een imensitatea C\u0103ii Lactee nu tr\u0103iesc la ora actual\u0103 dec\u00e2t cinci (5) civiliza\u021bii tehnologice, ceea ce, cu aproxim\u0103rile destul de grosolane pe care le-am f\u0103cut, ar putea s\u0103 \u00eensemne tot at\u00e2t de bine \u0219i c\u0103 suntem singurii. Dac\u0103 \u00eens\u0103 ne \u00eencredem \u00een \u00een\u021belepciunea fiin\u021belor inteligente, putem s\u0103 le acord\u0103m m\u0103car ceva \u0219anse de supravie\u021buire, s\u0103 admitem c\u0103 m\u0103car uneori lucrurile nu se termin\u0103 r\u0103u. Dac\u0103 m\u0103car 1% din civiliza\u021bii ar supravie\u021bui \u00eencerc\u0103rilor, num\u0103rul civiliza\u021biilor din galaxie, la ora actual\u0103, ar trebui s\u0103 fie de ordinul milioanelor.<\/p>\n

Estim\u0103rile de mai sus sunt luate din diverse surse, \u00een primul r\u00e2nd dup\u0103 cartea lui C. Sagan \u201eCosmos” (1980). Dar poate c\u0103 valorile pentru P2, P3, P4 din aceste estim\u0103ri sunt mult prea optimiste, astfel \u00eenc\u00e2t \u00een loc de 500 milioane de civiliza\u021bii tehnologice pentru galaxia noastr\u0103 probabil c\u0103 e mai realist s\u0103 admitem doar c\u00eeteva sute sau c\u00eeteva mii. Pe de alt\u0103 parte previziunile lui Sagan privind supravie\u021buirea civiliza\u021biilor tehnologice sunt exagerat de pesimiste. Poate c\u0103 mare parte a acestor civiliza\u021bii g\u0103sesc (totu\u0219i) calea dep\u0103\u0219irii escaladei militariste imperialiste ca \u0219i a celorlalte capcane ale epocii tehnologice. Aceasta \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 la ora actual\u0103 ar putea exista in Galaxia noastr\u0103 circa 1.000 de civiliza\u021bii. Aten\u021bie \u00eens\u0103! Unele dintre aceste civiliza\u021bii ar putea s\u0103 fie foarte vechi. O mie de civiliza\u021bii pot \u00eensemna un num\u0103r mult mai mare de planete, dac\u0103 punem la socoteal\u0103 \u0219i pe cele care au fost colonizate de aceste civiliza\u021bii, aspect care formulei lui Drake i-a sc\u0103pat cu des\u0103v\u00e2r\u0219ire.<\/p>\n

Astrofizicianul F. Hoyle crede c\u0103 \u00een galaxie exist\u0103 circa 10.000 civiliza\u021bii, deci pe o raz\u0103 de 1.000 ani-lumin\u0103 \u00een jurul nostru nu putem g\u0103si nicio planet\u0103 locuit\u0103 (din nou nu se \u021bine cont de posibilele coloniz\u0103ri).<\/p>\n

Foto:<\/strong> <\/em>pixabay.com<\/strong><\/a> (Commons Creative – free)<\/h6>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Problema existen\u0163ei extratere\u015ftrilor i-a preocupat \u00eentotdeauna pe oameni. Dar oare c\u00e2te specii extraterestre avansate exist\u0103 \u00een galaxia noastr\u0103? Precum se \u015ftie,\u00a0 \u00een anul 1961, astrofizicianul F. Drake a propus \u00een acest sens, urm\u0103toarea formul\u0103: N = n * P1 * … <\/p>\n

Cititi mai multe<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":63285,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11039],"tags":[5636,102,13711,1405,3144,1027,11846,341,51,433,57,105,732,4123,3417,865,733,400,366,1384],"class_list":["post-63284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-astronomie","tag-astrofizician","tag-astronomie","tag-bombe-nucleare","tag-calea-lactee","tag-carl-sagan","tag-civilizatie","tag-drake","tag-europa","tag-extraterestri","tag-galaxie","tag-oameni","tag-pamant","tag-planeta","tag-radioactivitate","tag-sistem-solar","tag-soare","tag-stea","tag-submarin","tag-viata","tag-vierme"],"yoast_head":"\nC\u00e2te civiliza\u0163ii extraterestre avansate ar putea exista \u00een galaxia noastr\u0103? 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